Karma Trades

Yesterday I joined Investors Underground.
I considere this as another step in my progress and education as a trader.
Later I'll be writing a review of the service just as with the other services
So far I like that they're focused on learning how to trade instead of announcing trade alerts.
They've got 3 chatrooms: Momentum, Swing & OTC/Subpenny trades.

I must say thay I also got a nice discount by signing up for their "Free Tour" and asking for a promo code; so they gave me the same discount as their last Christmas promo, which it was 30%.
So if you're considering joinin, be sure to ask for a discount!

Recently a friend of mine shared with me this awesome seminar by Mark Douglas, author of "The Diciplined Trader" & "Trading in the Zone", both books on trading psycology which I recommend to anyone wanting to improve their trading performance.

Anyway, this long seminar is almost as a video synthesis of both books with real examples of how to solve trading problems provided by the very attendants of the seminar.

What is it?

It's a momentum indicator that tracks the relationship between volume and price. It is often considered a leading indicator because it shows when a stock is being accumulated or distributed, foreshadowing major price moves. Again, volume precedes price.

How is it calculated?

The indicator has a three step calculation:

How to use it?

This indicator is mainly used to confirm trends or spot potencial trend weakness & reversal when there is a divergence with the price trend.

























Unlike the OBV, the Accum/Dist Line takes into account each individual period, giving it a different value based on if it cloed near its highs or near its lows. This means that a slightly red hammer day, won't affect the line the same way as a long red candle would, thus allowing to track the volume more accuratetly than the OBV.

What is it?

The On Balance Volume indicator or OBV, is an indicator that focuses on the importance of volume and how it can affect a give prince and asset's momentum. OBV is based on the idea tha volume precedes price, so if a security is seein an increasing OBV it is a signal that volume is increasing during the upward price moves; when it decreases, it means the opposite, volume is increasing on the down days. 

How is it calculated?

The OBV is simply a running total of positive and negative volume during any given period.

If the closing price is above the prior close price then: 
Current OBV = Previous OBV + Current Volume

If the closing price is below the prior close price then: 
Current OBV = Previous OBV  -  Current Volume

If the closing prices equals the prior close price then:
Current OBV = Previous OBV (no change)

How to use it?

The value of the OBV line is not important, what it's important is the characteristics of the line. Firstly, the most important is the trend, this will help us find out in which direction the volume is flowing.
























If we are following a trend, we would like to see the OBV moving in the same direction of the trend. That means that the trend is being supported by volume.


Another use of the OBV is to look for divergencies. When the OBV stops going higher or even begins to trend downwards while a security price is still going up, that is s sign that the existing trend is weakening and may reverse.



An example of a bullish divergence. Notice how the OBV started to trend up before the price did.


The on-balance volume measure is one of the least complex volume indicators that try to measure price and volume together. While there are more complex indicators, it is the ease of understanding and use that make this volume indicator so popular.

What is it?

How is it calculated?

%K = (Current Close - Lowest Low)/(Highest High - Lowest Low) * 100
%D = 3-day SMA of %K

Lowest Low = lowest low for the look-back period
Highest High = highest high for the look-back period
%K is multiplied by 100 to move the decimal point two places

How to use it?

Just like the RSI, the stochastic oscilator can also be used to identify oversold and overbought market conditions.When the stochastic is above 80, it is considered to be overbought; when it is below 20, it is considered to be oversold.

Variants

There are 2 main variants of the stochastic oscillator: The Fast & Slow Stochastic.
 
Fast Stochastic Oscillator: This is the basic formula explained above.

• Fast %K = %K basic calculation
• Fast %D = 3-period SMA of Fast %K

Slow Stochastic Oscillator: This form of the stochastic is used to further smooth both the %K and %D lines, reducing the number of false signals.

• Slow %K = Fast %K smoothed with 3-period SMA
• Slow %D = 3-period SMA of Slow %K

Comparisons and Contrasts with the RSI

While they are similar and also have similar goals, the way that each of these momentum indicators are calculated makes them better suited for different situations.

The RSI takes the last "n" periods and divides the gross positive changes per period by the gross negative changes. This means that the more often prices move higher in that "n" period span and the greater those changes become, the higher the RSI value.

A Stochastic is the measurement of the placement of a current price within a recent trading range. The theory is that as prices rise, closes tend to occur nearer to the high end of their recent range. When prices trend higher and closes begin to sag within the range it signals internal market weakness.

Simply stated, the Relative Strength Index yields the most meaningful results in trending markets while Stochastics work best in flat or choppy markets. The RSI, as mentioned, helps determine when a price has moved too far too fast. This implies a trending market. Stochastics help determine when a price has moved to the top or bottom of a trading range, which implies a non-trending (flat or choppy) market.

What is it?

Volume is a very simple indicator but also a very powerful one if used correctly. It is a measure of how many shares of contracts of any given financial asset has been trader in a given period of time.

How is it calculated?

Volume is just a count for al the shares that were traded that day. If a buyer of a stock purchases 100 shares from a seller, then the volume for that period increases by 100 shares based on that transaction.

How to use it?

Volume is usually seen as an histogram at the bottom of a price chart. Each bar represents the volume of each period.

Volume is used to measure the worth of a market move. If the markets have made strong price move either up or down the perceived strength of that move depends on the volume for that period. The higher the volume during that price move the more significant the move.

Volume in Trends 

In a rising market volume should be also increasing. This means that the market is finding new buyers to sustain the trend. Increasing price and decreasing volume show lack of interest and this is a warning of a potential reversal. 





















This can be hard to wrap your mind around, but the simple fact is that a price drop (or rise) on little volume is not a strong signal. A price drop (or rise) on large volume is a stronger signal that something in the stock has fundamentally changed.


Exhaustion Moves and Volume

In a rising or falling market we can see exhaustion moves. These are generally sharp moves in price combined with also a sharp increase in volume. Exhaustion moves usually signal the potencial end of a trend.





















Participants who waited and are afraid of missing more of the move pile in at market tops, exhausting the number of buyers. At a market bottom, falling prices eventually force out large numbers of traders, resulting in volatility and increased volume.

Volume and Price Reversals

After a long price move higher or lower, if price begins to range with little price movement and heavy volume, often it indicates a reversal.


Volume and Breakouts Vs. False Breakouts

On the initial breakout from a range or other chart pattern, a rise in volume indicates strength in the move. Little change in volume or declining volume on a breakout indicates lack of interest and a higher probability for a false breakout.



Volume Indicators
 
There are many volume-based indicators that add other perpectives about how to interpret volume. I'll cover those in further posts.

What is it?

The Relative Strenght Index or RSI is a momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in order to determine overbought and oversold conditions.

How is it calculated?

RSI = 100 - 100/(1 + RS*)
*Where RS = Average of x days' up closes / Average of x days' down closes.

How to use it:

The RSI is an oscilator and as such, it has upper and lower limits.
When th RSI goes above 70 it is considered overbought, meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback. Likewise when it goes below 30 it is considered oversold and therefore it's likely to be undervalued.





















One important thing to consider is that just because a stock is oversold or overbought it means that it is a buy or a sell respectively. Any asset can stay oversold or overbought for extended periods of time. It is much better to either buy when the stock is coming out of oversold and sell when it's coming out of overbought.

Treat the RSI just as what it is, an indicator. While an oversold stock is more likely to bounce, it doesn't mean that it HAS to do it soon. Likewise an overbought stock doesn't always has to pullback soon.

What is it? 

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence, also known as MACD, is a trend following and momentum indicator that is based on the relationship between two moving averages.

How is it calculated?

It is calculared by substracting the 26 day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the 12 day EMA and plotting it, that's the MACD; then another 9 day EMA is plotted and it is called the signal line.

How to use it:

There are three common methods used to interpret the MACD:

1. Crossovers - As shown in the chart, when the MACD falls below the signal line, it is a bearish signal, which indicates that it may be time to sell. Conversely, when the MACD rises above the signal line, the indicator gives a bullish signal, which suggests that the price of the asset is likely to experience upward momentum. Many traders wait for a confirmed cross above the signal line before entering into a position to avoid getting getting "faked out" or entering into a position too early, as shown by the first arrow.

2. Divergence - When the security price diverges from the MACD. It signals the end of the current trend.

3. Dramatic rise - When the MACD rises dramatically - that is, the shorter moving average pulls away from the longer-term moving average - it is a signal that the security is overbought and will soon return to normal levels.

Variants

The Histogram

Sometimes you will have the option to plot the MACD histogram. This is a series of bars that show the distance between the MACD and the signal line.



















The histogram works as an early indicator for the trend change. When the histrogram's slope changes direction it is signaling a decrease on the trend momentum and then a probable trend change.

Different values

Some people like to change the MACD default values to better suit their trading style. One popular set of values is 13 for the long term EMA, 6 for the short term and 5 for the signal line.

This will make the MACD more responsive to price movements and it's useful when trading shorter timeframes.

What happened is that I opened a Suretrader Account and tried out daytrading.

The result?

Well, lets say that daytrading is not for me at the moment and I'm switching back to Swing Trading.
Finding out what trading style is best for you is one of the most important steps to building a successful trading career. Finding out that Daytrading is probably not for me was a costly but important lesson. You can clearly see all this in my profitly profit chart.

I'm definetly not proud about this outcome, nor my results, but I acknowledge that trading is not an easy career and that there will be multiple obstacles along a way with no signs.

Another interesting discovery during this couple months of no posting was that I was no longer interested in stock picks/alerts and I mean all of them: Not those from Jason Bond nor Tim Sykes nor ClayTrader. Don't get me wrong, those guys are legit and each has a successful trading style.

But for some reason my interest in being self sufficient is stronger than ever. I have a deep desire of building a trading style of my own. Of course I'll be checking out all the learning material of those newsletter that I'm subscribed to, but I'm no longer interested in their picks.

From now on I'm focused on developing my own trading style, a style that deeply resonates within myself, as I think every aspiring trader should.

Thats pretty much all I had to say.

I'll be doing more posts about trading and pretty much everything that catches my eye and think that its worth sharing along with my watchlists.

And remember kids, "it ain't about how hard you hit, it's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving foward, how much you can take and keep moving foward, thats how winning is done!".

AVNR had a big move on monday and has been consolidating this past two days. There is some clear resistance at 13.00. I'll keep on watch for either a breakout above 13.00 or a failed break and subsequent breakdown.


MOBI made a big move above 10.00 today at EOD, so I expect this to be in play tomorrow. Pretty much no resistance until the mid 12s. Let's see if it can hold the double digits and move from there.


NYNY was the huge mover of today, basicly doubled from yesterday's open. Let's see if this can keep moving or if it begins to crack down, making it a good short opportunity.

I hope that you can profit from this watchlist.
I you have any other stock worth watching, please share it in the comments.

Good Luck & Have Profits.